Zainab Saleh: In short, the loss of Mosul and other Iraqi cities from government control is tied to both the legacy of US occupation and the struggle for power among different Iraqi factions. It also reflects regional and international interference in Iraq’s affairs. The ascendancy of Iraq’s Shi’a and their leaders’ close relations with Iran have had a significant impact on regional politics. The Gulf states and Saudi Arabia in particular seem intent on weakening Shi’i and Iranian influence in Iraq.
The sectarian discourse that has increasingly dominated the region’s politics since 2003 also came to play an important role in Syria, which in turn influenced the situation in Iraq. The Syrian uprising, which started as a non-violent revolt against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, degenerated into a civil war between the regime and different rebel groups. It was also cast as an uprising by an oppressed Sunni majority against Alawite minority rule. […] ISIS has enjoyed military support and funding from the Gulf states and Turkey.
[…] Even if the Iraqi government manages to regain control of these areas, it will be extremely difficult for it to root out ISIS, dismantle newly-formed militias like that of the Turkmen Front, drive out any foreign troops, and persuade the Kurds to relinquish control over Kirkuk. As such, recent developments have already produced new and serious challenges. It is difficult to predict what is next for Iraq, particularly after Barack Obama has expressed the readiness of the United States to strike ISIS and the Baghdad government’s formal request to Washington to launch air strikes inside its territory.
There are two things that should not be done. First, airstrikes will not be effective. If the US drone wars in Yemen and Pakistan, and the various US air campaigns against Iraq over the years have taught us anything, it is that airborne warfare does not weaken irregular groups and that it is the civilian population that pays the price. Second, Iraq should not be partitioned. The prospect of dividing Iraq into three is on the table. This scenario will result in the establishment of three weak entities, each beholden to and dependent upon regional powers. The Iraqi people will again have to pay a high price.
A political solution, no matter how impractical it might now look, is the only alternative. Its key elements would consist of dismantling the sectarian political system, and agreement among regional and international powers to cease using Iraq as an arena to further their own interests and engage in proxy conflicts on its soil. Absent such developments Iraq will not be stable. More here.