OMAR WARAICH: … there is reason to believe that broader changes in Pakistan have helped make future military coups far less likely. Since the chief justice was restored to the bench in 2009, the judiciary has fiercely asserted its independence. Supporters believe it has held the government to account; critics contend that it has often overstepped its constitutional role while doing so. Either way, it has emerged as another check on power—both civilian and military, as the court has made clear by questioning intelligence officials about the “disappearances” of activists and terror suspects.
A similar assertiveness can be seen among the media and middle classes. Under Musharraf, there was a proliferation of lively but restrained news channels. Toward the end of his rule, they broke free of state control and challenged his hold on power; as one channel declared, they regarded “the worst democracy as better than the best dictatorship.” Over the same period, the middle classes—which had traditionally shunned politics, and broadly welcomed Musharraf’s coup—have begun to participate in political rallies and vote in greater numbers. (Many threw their support this year behind the cricket legend Imran Khan, who mounted a populist challenge to the country’s two entrenched parties.)
Since his election, Nawaz Sharif has been working to bolster civilian power. He retained the Foreign Ministry himself, and handed the defense portfolio to a trusted aide who has been a fierce critic of military rule. Meanwhile, Musharraf—immured in his tasteful villa on the edge of Islamabad—will shortly face trial for treason, over his move to suspend the constitution and impose a state of emergency in 2007. Much to Musharraf’s fury, the Army has thus far declined to intervene on his behalf. In Kayani’s final speech, which coincided with the anniversary of the 1999 coup that toppled Nawaz Sharif and brought Musharraf to power, the retiring Army chief urged his successor to “strengthen democracy.”
All of these steps are meant to insure that the prime minister, and not the Army chief, is the most powerful Sharif in Pakistan. But that status is not easy to guarantee: before he was toppled by Musharraf in 1999, Sharif thought his position was invulnerable, thanks to a landslide victory that gave him an overwhelming majority in Parliament. If the direct threat of a coup has receded, today Sharif faces a broader array of checks on his power, including the media, the opposition, the judges, and—of course—the generals. More here.